The US Presidential Election

Some real facts

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What did the 2012 campaign cost?
… About as much as Americans spent on Halloween candy in October.
Source: CNN – Political Mann

Oudtshoorn. 5 and 6 November 2012.

Is the US election REALLY that close
or are they dramatising thing in typical US style?

Consider this…

Nate Silver: Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That’s a pretty big deal.

A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today’s data so far.
Click here.

Pew Research: We still have 11 percent of the (Pew poll) sample saying…we could possibly change our mind.
Click here.

Pew Forum:

Nearly half (45%) of black Protestant churchgoers say the messages they hear at church favor Obama.

Among white Catholic churchgoers, 21% say their clergy’s messages have been more supportive of Romney.

Of black Protestant churchgoers, 0% say the messages they hear at church favor Romney.

Click here.

The last Pew Research poll before the election.

SkyNews: Opinion polls in the states that matter show Obama with a lead. The national polls show him effectively tied with Mitt Romney.

Nate Silver: Obama’s win probability peaked at 87% on 10/4, last day before polls reflected Denver debate. Fell to 61% on 10/12. Now fully recovered.

Nate Silver: Obama unlikely to win by anything like his post-DNC margins. But Romney has no momentum, Obama’s state polling is robust, and time is up.

Pew Research: Andrew Kohut on NPR: “We know (from past exit polls) that many people do make up their minds at the last moment.”
Click here.

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